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Alternatives for Financing Social Security in Luxembourg by Resident and Cross-Border Households

  1. Philippe Liégeois  Is a corresponding author
  1. Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research/LISER, Luxembourg
Research article
Cite this article as: P. Liégeois; 2026; Alternatives for Financing Social Security in Luxembourg by Resident and Cross-Border Households; International Journal of Microsimulation; 19(2); 112-138. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00340
8 figures and 10 tables

Figures

Share of employees, based on their average earnings compared to the MSW, in % of employees with positive (>0) labor earnings [*] (MSW = 1998.59 EUR / month in 2017).
Share of fiscal households across the fiscal brackets, based on their yearly tax base, if >0 and class-1 (single without dependents) or class-2 households (couples) (as resulting from EUROMOD /HFCS-R and EUROMOD /HFCS-XB).
Total receipts for Luxembourg (from residents and all XBs), social contributions and income taxes for all alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies (all outcomes “++” hence including “macro adjustment”, see Table 1) – Ranked based on total receipts
Proportion of receipts for Luxembourg from residents (in % of receipts including “macro adjustments”, see Table 1)
The Gini coefficient for residents and its decomposition for all alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies – in % of their STD value, ranked in decreasing values
The poverty rate (absolute values) and the poverty line (in % of its STD value) for residents and all alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies – Ranked in decreasing values of poverty rates
Gini coefficient for residents versus Total receipts, across a selection of alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies
Poverty rate for residents versus Gini coefficient for residents, across a selection of alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies

Tables

Table 1
An overall view of the benchmark “STD” (income year 2017) for resident and XB households
Data and EUROMOD platformsSILC *HFCS-RHFCS-XB
(Active households &
LU-incomes only)
Population covered by the survey, in persons574,184535,897418,997
Taxable Income, before Tax allowances, in millions € / year (from tinty_s in HFCS-R, or tinty_lu_s for Active XB households)20,80820,0417,947
… out of additional amount from XBs not covered by the survey (for subsequent macro adjustment, see Section 2.4)  1,109
Public Revenue (in millions € / year)
Social contributions3,9143,7142,030
whoseEmployee1,8201,693945
Self-employed17822127
Others (Long term care from Social assistance)330
Employers1,7101,6671,059
Credited
(Replacement income, Social assistance, Pensions)
2021300
… out of additional amount from XBs not covered by the survey (for macro adjustment)62
Personal Income Tax3,2893,439824
Implicit Tax Rate on Tax Base (tinty_s – tinta_s, or LU versions if XBs), before Tax Credits 20.9%14.4%
Global Tax Rate (after Tax Allowances & Credits) = Income Tax / Taxable Income, on average 17.2%10.4%
… out of additional amount from XBs not covered by the survey (for macro adjustment)115
Þ Total Public Revenue (before macro adjustment)7,2037,1532,855
Inequalities  If All Incomes
Gini
Relative = Abs / (2*Avg)0.25240.29930.1940
Absolute (in € / month)1,7012,1031,088
Average (in € / month)3,3713,5132,804
Poverty
Line (in € / month)1,7901,7701,564
Rate11%13%2%
by Type of Residence Household:
Single (<65)14%16%1%
Single (65+)8%9%2%
Single with dependent(s)31%18%0%
Couple - 0 dep6%5%2%
Couple - 1-2 dep11%18%2%
Couple - 3+ dep14%21%2%
"Well-being", as equivalized income (all in € / month), on average  If All Incomes
All3,3713,5132,804
1st Decile1,5741,4721,635
by Type of Residence Household:
Single (<65)3,3083,2492,828
Single (65+)3,2153,4402,878
Single with dependent(s)2,4732,6612,530
Couple - 0 dep3,9224,1503,194
Couple - 1-2 dep3,1173,2922,768
Couple - 3+ dep2,6732,8262,353
  1. Source: Liégeois (2025a) Table 2

  2. *

    A comparison with official statistics can be found in the EUROMOD country report for Luxembourg (https://euromod-web.jrc.ec.europa.eu/resources/country-reports - Archives - I3.0+ - Annex 2: Validation tables)

Table 2
Alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies - 1st part STD, dependency and health care
#Underlying PolicyRef.Contents (all in relation with Social Contributions)*
1BASELINESTDEUROMOD simulation of System presently in force “LU_2017_STD”
2Dependency (Long Term Care) (target cf. health/in-kind, out of pensioners) (7% of social contributions in 2018)†D1Deductibility (for the computation of social contribution base) from 0.25*MSW in STD down to 0% ‡
3D2Deductibility (for the computation of social contribution base) from 0.25*MSW up to 0.5*MSW
4D3Contribution rate increase from 1.4% in STD up to 1.6% of labor income (to roughly balance the higher deductibility above in [D2])
5D4Contribution rate increase from 1.4% up to 2.4%
6D5[D2] + [D3]: Increase deductibility and balance it through a higher contribution rate
7Health care / in-kind (Social Contributions, including “credited”, for employ-ees/-ers, self-employed, replacement income, pensioners, social assistance) (29% of social contributions in 2018) †H1Max threshold for the social contribution base from 5 MSW in STD to 7 MSW (see Section 2.2 and ‡)
8H2No threshold for the social contribution base (NB: upper bound set to 1000 MSW, practically)
9H3Reduced fiscal deductibility of social contributions: from 100% (not taxable in STD) down to 50%
10H4Social contribution rates from 2.8% in STD to 3.8% (hence +2% if employ-ees/-ers altogether)
11H5Progressivity of social contrib. rates: 2.8% (resp. 3.8%) for that part of labor income < 2 (resp. >=2) MSW
12H6Progressivity of social contrib. rates: 1.8% (resp. 3.8%) for that part of labor income < 2 (resp. >=2) * MSW
13H7[H5] + [H1]: Progressivity (2.8%/3.8%) and max threshold to 7 MSW
14H8[H6] + [H1]: Progressivity (1.8%/3.8%) and max threshold to 7 MSW
15H9[H5] + [H2]: Progressiv. (2.8%/3.8%) and no threshold
16HA[H5] + [H2] + [H3]: Progressivity (2.8%/3.8%), no threshold and fiscal deductibility to 50% only
  1. *

    For details about “STD” and reference parameters or policies, refer to Islam et al. (2020).

  2. †

    Source: EUROMOD Country Report for LU, Y12 (2018-2021), Table 4.8 (page 73), Employee / Self-employed, Employer and Credited contributions, from External sources and for Residents only.

  3. ‡

    Minimum Social Wage (MSW, Section 2.2): 1.998,59 EUR/month as on 1 January 2017. In STD, 25% of this amount is deducted from the social contribution base (gross labor income) before deriving social contributions (some % of the base).

Table 3
Alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies - 2nd part - pensions
#Underlying PolicyRef.Contents (all in relation with Social Contributions)*
17Pensions (Social Contributions, including “credited”, for employ-ees/ers, self-employed, replacement income) (60% of social contributions in 2018) Source: cf. [***] in Table 2P1Max threshold for the social contribution base from 5 MSW in STD to 6 MSW†
18P2Max threshold from 5 MSW to 7 MSW
19P3No threshold for the social contribution base (NB: upper bound set to 1000 MSW, practically)
20P4Social contribution rate from 8% in STD to 9% both for employees and employers (hence +2% altogether)
21P5[P4] + [P2]: Rate from 8% to 9% and max threshold to 7 MSW
22P6[P4] + [P3]: Rate from 8% to 9% and no threshold
23P7Progressivity of social contribution rates: 8% (resp. 9%) for that part of labor income < 2 (resp. >=2) * MSW
24P8Progressivity: 7% (resp. 9%) for that part of labor income < 2 (resp. >=2) MSW
25P9[P8] + [P2]: Progressivity (7% and 9%) and max threshold for the social contribution base to 7 MSW
26PAProgressivity: 9% (resp. 10%) for that part of labor income < 2 (resp. >=2) * MSW
27PB[PA] + [P3]: Progressivity : 9% (resp. 10%) and no threshold
28PCSocial contribution rate from 8% to 12% for employees/-ers
29PDCSV: cf. [P1] +Contribution Solidarité Vieillesse / CSV: 5% flat rate with the Minimum Pension (“MP” = 1771.75 €/month in 2017) deducted from the contribution base (pension income) at individual level ; no deductibility from income tax base & No Threshold for CSV
30PECSV: cf. [PD], but 25% of MP deducted from the contribution base (pension income) only
31PFCSV: [PD] + [P6] (social contribution rate to 9% and no max threshold)
32PGCSV: cf. [PD], hence [P1], but Proportional Tax for CSV (flat, but increasing with class of pension income): 0% if social contrib. base <= MP, 1.4% if base in ]MP, 2*MP], 2.8% if base in ]2*MP, 3*MP] and 4.2% if base > 3*MP
33PHCSV: cf. [PD], hence [P1], but Progressive Tax for CSV (cf. Income tax), same rates and limits as in PG
  1. *

    For details about parameters or policies in our benchmark “STD”, refer to Islam et al. (2020).

  2. †

    Minimum Social Wage (MSW, Section 2.2): 1.998,59 EUR/month as on 1 January 2017.

Table 4
Alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies - 3rd part - income taxes
#Underlying PolicyRef.Contents (all in relation with Income Taxes)*
34Personal Income Taxes (Tax schedule) (equivalent to 86% of social contributions in 2018) Source: cf. [***] in Table 2I1Brackets unchanged but higher Rates for higher Brackets: 45.897 € and more (40%, rather than 39% in STD), then 42% (40% in STD), 44% (41% in STD) and 46% for higher brackets (42% in STD)
35I2More higher brackets and higher Rates: 39% up to 100.000 € (100 K), 40% up to 150 K, 41% up to 200 K -up to here as in STD-, then 42% up to 300 K, 44% up to 400 K, 46% up to 500 K, 48% up to 600 K, 50% up to 700 K, 52% up to 800 K, 54% up to 1000 K and 56% over 1000 K
36I3Idem [I1] but “class-1a” (Section 2.2) dropped and merged to class-2
37I4Lower Rates for lower (unchanged) brackets: 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%, 14% and 17% respectively for the 9 first tax brackets (0%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%, 14%, 16% and 18% in STD), then unchanged compared to STD
38I5Enlargement of lower Brackets (Rates unchanged): 0 € ; 16,000 € ; 17,000 € ; 18,000 € ; 19,000 € and [20,000 € – 20,625 €] for the 6th bracket (0 € ; 11,265 € ; 13,137 € ; 15,009 € ; 16,881 € and [18,753 € - 29,625 €] in STD)
39I6All combined [I1] + [I4] + [I5]: higher Rates for higher Brackets and enlargement of lower Brackets (with lower Rates)
  1. *

    For details about our benchmark “STD” and reference parameters or policies, refer to Islam et al. (2020).

Table 5
Alternative systems of socio-fiscal policies - Final part combining instruments for a global target
#Combined PolicyRef.ContentsRemarks
40Combination of policies to target an additional funding of 2.77 billion € / year (EUROMOD-base)C1[P6] + ([H2] + [H4]) +([D1] + [D4]) + I1“C” (as first letter) for “Combination” of policies, here based on all maximally funding tracks through Pensions (without CSV), Health, Dependency and Income tax Reminder: [P6] = social contribution rate from 8% to 9% & no threshold / [PB] = progressivity 9% and 10% & no threshold / [PC] = 8% to 12% with threshold (5 MSW)
41C2[PB] + ([H2] + [H4]) +([D1] + [D4]) + I1
42C3[PC] + ([H2] + [H4]) +([D1] + [D4]) + I1
43C4[C1] + [PG]Social contribution rate for pensions from 8% to 9%, no threshold and CSV with proportional rate (hence flat, but increasing with the class of income)
Table 6
Selected basic indicators and normalized values for STD
Basic Indicator considered ßC1-C4 ßMinMaxSTD
IMIN *AlternativeIMAX [**]AlternativeISTDNormalized index iSTD (if Cx included) *
Gini coefficient(residents)Included0.2922C40.3004PC0.29930.138 *
Excluded0.2939I3
Poverty Rate(residents)Included12.6%C414.7%I313.2%0.697
Excluded12.6%PE
Total Receipts for Luxembourg(in millions €/year)Included9,849I612,432C310,1850.130
Excluded11,558PC
  1. *

    See Section 4.2 - The Gini normalized value gSTD directly computed from this table = (0.3004 – 0.2993) / (0.3004 - 0.2922) = 0.134 is slightly deviating from the “effective” value 0.138 mentioned in the table, due to rounding effects

Table 7
A few alternatives emphasized throughout this study
Criteria and Main valuesIf considering the combined alternatives C1-C4 (see also Table B1)If excluding C1-C4 (see also Table B2)
Total Receipts
(social contributions + personal income taxes ; residents + XBs)
[Min: 8,849 - STD : 10,185 - Max : 12,432], in million € / year
C3: best
C4: 2nd best
I6: the worst alternative (but that can also be shown as the best for well-being)
PC: best
PF: 2nd best
Poverty rate among Residents (proportion of persons under 60% of the median equivalent income)
[Min: 12.6% - STD: 13.2% - Max: 14.7%]
C4: best
PE: 2nd best
PE: best
HA: 2nd best
Gini inequality coefficient among residents (mean absolute equivalent income gap divided by twice the average equivalent income)
[Min: 0.2922 - STD : 0.2993 - Max : 0.3004]
C4: best
C2: 2nd best
I3: best
I6: 2nd best
General Performance Index
(GPI)
C4: best balanced (if weights = 0.3/Gini, 0.3/poverty, 0.4/receipts)
C2: 2nd best balanced
PF: best balanced (if weights = 0.3/Gini, 0.3/poverty, 0.4/receipts)
HA: 2nd best balanced
Table A1
Correlations between an ad hoc selection of basic outcome indicators
CorrelationsTotal ReceiptsReceipts from ResidentsReceipts from XBsGINI ResidentsPOVERTY ResidentsPOVERTY - Single Resident Households with DependentsWELL-BEING ResidentsGINI XBsPOVERTY XBsWELL-BEING XBs
Total Receipts1.00
Receipts from Residents1.001.00
Receipts from XBs0.990.971.00
GINI Residents-0.40-0.45-0.261.00
POVERTY Residents-0.11-0.14-0.05-0.011.00
POVERTY - Single Resident Households with Dependents-0.21-0.23-0.16-0.080.821.00
WELL-BEING Residents-0.97-0.98-0.930.490.230.331.00
GINI XBs-0.42-0.44-0.350.680.19-0.070.441.00
POVERTY XBs-0.81-0.79-0.820.100.410.470.810.381.00
WELL-BEING XBs-0.98-0.97-0.980.280.160.300.960.350.871.00
  1. Note to the reader: the correlations refer to the outcomes for all (43) alternatives ; indicators referring to XBs are shown in blue fonts (these refer to the populations covered by the HFCS-XB survey, out of the (total) Receipts from XBs which are macro-adjusted for “non-active” XB households).

Table B1
Global performance index, given weights for Gini coefficient, poverty rate and total receipts (in million € / year) All alternatives considered (including the combined systems C1-C4)
p.m. RECEIPTS (in millions €/year) (Min: 9,849 - Max : 12,432)
GINI (Min: 0.2922 - Max : 0.3004) a ßPOVERTY / b Þ (Min: 12.6% - Max: 14.7%)00.30.61
Best Systems, "Cx" INCLUDED1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best
0INDICSTDC3C4C2C3C4C2C4C2C1C4PEHA
REC10,18512,43211,67011,65512,43211,67011,65511,67011,65511,55711,67010,36110,488
GINI_R0.29930.29710.29220.29270.29710.29220.29270.29220.29270.29350.29220.29850.2964
POV_R13.2%13.6%12.6%13.0%13.6%12.6%13.0%12.6%13.0%13.0%12.6%12.6%12.7%
0.3INDICSTDC3C4C2C4C2C1C4C2C1   
REC10,18512,43211,67011,65511,67011,65511,55711,67011,65511,557  
GINI_R0.29930.29710.29220.29270.29220.29270.29350.29220.29270.2935  
POV_R13.2%13.6%12.6%13.0%12.6%13.0%13.0%12.6%13.0%13.0%  
0.6INDICSTDC4C2C1C4C2C1    
REC10,18511,67011,65511,55711,67011,65511,557  
GINI_R0.29930.29220.29270.29350.29220.29270.2935  
POV_R13.2%12.6%13.0%13.0%12.6%13.0%13.0%  
1INDICSTDC4C2C1    
REC10,18511,67011,65511,557  
GINI_R0.29930.29220.29270.2935  
POV_R13.2%12.6%13.0%13.0%         
Table B2
Global Performance Index, given weights for Gini coefficient, poverty rate and total Receipts (in million € / year) - All alternatives (excluding the combined systems C1-C4)
p.m. RECEIPTS (in millions €/year) (Min: 9,849 - Max : 11,558)
GINI (Min: 0.2939 - Max : 0.3004) a ßPOVERTY / b (Min: 12.6% - Max: 14.7%)00.30.61
Best Systems, “CX” EXCLUDED1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best1st Best2nd Best3rd Best
0INDICSTDPCPFPBPCPFPBPFHAPEPEHAPF
REC10,18511,55810,79310,78211,55810,79310,78210,79310,48810,36110,36110,48810,793
GINI_R0.29930.30040.29570.29600.30040.29570.29600.29570.29640.29850.29850.29640.2957
POV_R13.2%13.7%12.8%13.2%13.7%12.8%13.2%12.8%12.7%12.6%12.6%12.7%12.8%
0.3INDICSTDPCPFPBPFHAPBHAPFPE   
REC10,18511,55810,79310,78210,79310,48810,78210,48810,79310,361  
GINI_R0.29930.30040.29570.29600.29570.29640.29600.29640.29570.2985  
POV_R13.2%13.7%12.8%13.2%12.8%12.7%13.2%12.7%12.8%12.6%  
0.6INDICSTDI3PFPBPFHAPB    
REC10,18510,22110,79310,78210,79310,48810,782  
GINI_R0.29930.29390.29570.29600.29570.29640.2960  
POV_R13.2%14.7%12.8%13.2%12.8%12.7%13.2%  
1INDICSTDI3I6PF    
REC10,18510,2219,84910,793  
GINI_R0.29930.29390.29450.2957  
POV_R13.2%14.7%14.0%12.8%         

Data and code availability

The analysis builds on data from [i] the “European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions” (EU-SILC) survey Wave 16, available for scientific research upon request to EUROSTAT, [ii] the third wave of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for residents, available for scientific research upon request to the European Central Bank, [iii] the third wave of the Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Survey for Cross-Border Commuters (for access requests, contact the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research at dataservice@liser.lu or marc.schneider@liser.lu) and [iv] the EU-wide micro-simulation model EUROMOD (I4.62+ Beta release / 3.4.10) available upon request to the EU-Joint Research Center in Seville.

Details of STATA routines for the creation of the EUROMOD input datasets from HFCS raw data and specific policy codes are available from the author upon request.

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