Evaluating the results of a social benefit simulation using individual administrative data on benefit receipt
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Regensburger Straße, Germany
Figures
Unemployment Benefit II (UBII), Housing Benefit (HB) and Child Benefit (CB) for a single-earner couple household with one minor child (2023).
Distribution of the monthly simulated and recorded UBII entitlements.
Distribution of the individual deviation of the simulated monthly UBII entitlement from the recorded UBII entitlement (Euro).
Tables
Sample selection.
| 2017 Individuals | 2017 Observations | 2018 Individuals | 2018 Observations | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBII recipients | 152,266 | 1,492,013 | 145,126 | 1,432,790 |
| ⁒ recipients <25 or >64 years old | 87,459 | 848,561 | 82,833 | 810,684 |
| ⁒ only children in the household registered | 87,145 | 844,708 | 82,531 | 806,966 |
| ⁒ no valid simulation possible | 79,124 | 730,964 | 74,672 | 696,506 |
| = analysis sample | 79,124 | 730,964 | 74,672 | 696,506 |
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Source: SIG version 0720, own calculations.
Data preparation for the simulation.
| Input variable | Label | Source | Information used in SIG data, data transformation, assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| hh_id | Household identifier | E | Number of the benefit unit |
| tu_id | Tax Unit identifier | D/A | Singles, single parents and couples with married head of household and partner: tu_id equals hh_id. Couples with at least one unmarried partner, the head of household and partner receive a separate tu_id and children in the household are randomly assigned to one of the two tu_ids. Calculation based on marital status and type of benefit unit. |
| p_id | Person identifier | E | Unique personal identifier |
| kind | Dummy: Dependent child living with parents | E | Position in the benefit unit |
| bruttolohn_m | Monthly gross wage | E | Monthly gross wage considered in the means test |
| alter | Individual’s age. | E | Age |
| weiblich | Dummy: female | E | Gender |
| rentner | Dummy: Pensioner employment status | E | Reason for exclusion from SGB II |
| alleinerz | Dummy: Single parent | E | Type of benefit unit |
| wohnort_ost | Dummy: Living in former East Germany | E | Place of residence |
| in_priv_krankenv | Dummy: In private health insurance | A | Assumption that there is no private health insurance. |
| priv_rentenv_beitr_m | Monthly private pension contribution | A | Set to 0, assumption that there is no private pension insurance. |
| in_ausbildung | Dummy: Employment status “in education” | D | In vocational training or eligible for training assistance. |
| selbstständig | Dummy: Self-employed (main profession) | D | Set to 1 if income from self-employment is considered in the means test |
| hat_kinder | Dummy: Has kids (incl. not in hh) | D/A | Type of benefit unit, assumption: no children outside the household |
| betreuungskost_m | Monthly childcare expenses for a particular child under the age of 14 | A | Set to 0 |
| sonstig_eink_m | Additional income: includes private and public transfers that are not yet implemented in GETTSIM (e.g., BAföG, Kriegsopferfürsorge) | E | Other income considered in the means test (public and private transfers) |
| eink_selbst_m | Monthly income from self-employment | E | Monthly gross income from self-employment considered in the means test |
| eink_vermietung_m | Monthly rental income net of deductions | E | Monthly disposable rental income considered in the means test |
| kapitaleink_brutto_m | Monthly capital income | E | Monthly disposable capital income considered in the means test |
| bruttokaltmiete_m_hh | Monthly rent expenses for household | E | Accepted regular monthly gross rent including additional costs (excluding heating costs) |
| heizkosten_m_hh | Monthly heating expenses for household | E | Accepted regular monthly heating costs |
| wohnfläche_hh | Size of household dwelling | A | 45 sqm for first person plus 15 sqm for each additional member |
| bewohnt_eigentum_hh | Dummy: Owner-occupied housing | A | No home ownership |
| arbeitsstunden_w | Weekly working hours of individual | A | Set to 0 |
| geburtstag | Day of birth | E | Day of birth |
| geburtsmonat | Month of birth | E | Month of birth |
| geburtsjahr | Year of birth | E | Year of birth |
| jahr_renteneintr | Year of retirement | D/A | Year of birth +65 |
| m_elterngeld | Number of months hh received elterngeld | A | Set to 0 |
| m_elterngeld_vat_hh | Number of months father received elterngeld | A | Set to 0 |
| m_elterngeld_mut_hh | Number of months mother received elterngeld | A | Set to 0 |
| behinderungsgrad | Handicap degree (between 0 and 100) | A | Set to 50 if person is severely disabled, else set to 0 |
| schwerbeh_g | Severely handicapped, with flag “G” | E | Set to 1 if person is severely disabled |
| mietstufe | Level of rents in city (1: low, 3: average) | E/A | Merged to dataset based on the municipality number of the place of residence, missing values are assigned to level 3 |
| immobilie_baujahr_hh | Construction year of dwelling | A | Set to 2000 |
| vermögen_bedürft_hh | Assets considered for means testing | A | Set to 0 |
| entgeltp | Earnings points for pension claim | A | Set to 0 |
| priv_rente_m | Amount of monthly private pension | A | Set to 0 |
| bürgerg_bezug_vorj | Received Bürgergeld in previous year | A | Set to 1 |
| kind_unterh_anspr_m | Monthly gross child alimony payments as determined by the court | D | Maintenance payments (for children and a spouses) considered in the means test |
| kind_unterh_erhalt_m | Monthly actual child alimony payments | D | Maintenance payments (for children and a spouses) considered in the means test |
| steuerklasse | Tax Bracket (1 to 5) for withholding tax | ||
| jahr | E | Year of recorded benefit receipt | |
| Specified output variables | |||
| unterhaltsvors_m | Alimony advance payment | E/A | Set to 0 (included in kind_unterh_erhalt_m) |
| veink_algI | Monthly amount of unemployment insurance benefit | E | Unemployment insurance benefit considered in the means test |
| ges_rente_m | Total private and public pension | E | Pension payments considered in the means test (public and private) |
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Source for the variable name and description: https://gettsim.readthedocs.io/en/stable/gettsim_objects/input_variables.html [accessed September 23, 2024]. E=Existing variable used or transformed, D=New variable derived/approximated from available information, A=New variable generated by assumption. Specified output variables are variables that can be simulated, but were specified as input variables in our analysis and hence not simulated.
Simulated versus registered UBII entitlement (shares in percent).
| GETTSIM | NoRentLimit | HAStricter1 | HAStricter2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All observations | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| with simulated UBII entitlement | 90.66 | 91.05 | 96.32 | 97.12 |
| without simulated UB II entitlement (beta error) | 9.34 | 8.95 | 3.68 | 2.88 |
| thereof: | ||||
| simulated housing and child benefit | 72.95 | 74.64 | 18.05 | 0.01 |
| simulated housing benefit only | 23.17 | 21.72 | 23.80 | 4.26 |
| simulated child benefit only | 0.61 | 0.59 | 44.03 | 68.68 |
| none | 3.27 | 3.04 | 14.12 | 27.05 |
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Notes: Beta-error results refer to 1,427 thousand person-month-observations that enter the simulation in each simulation variant.
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Source: SIG version 0720, GETTSIM v0.7.0, own calculations.
Mean, standard deviation and quantiles of the distribution of recorded and simulated UBII.
| Recorded UBII-entitlement | GETTSIM | NoRentLimit | HAStricter1 | HAStricter2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 891 | 873 | 882 | 865 | 859 |
| Std. deviation | 500 | 417 | 427 | 427 | 430 |
| 0.1 quantile | 390 | 413 | 415 | 409 | 404 |
| 0.5 quantile | 796 | 794 | 796 | 786 | 784 |
| 0.9 quantile | 1,515 | 1,456 | 1,465 | 1,447 | 1,444 |
| N (in thousands) | 1,427 | 1,294 | 1,300 | 1,375 | 1,386 |
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Source: SIG version 0720, GETTSIM v0.7.0, own calculations.
Distribution of UBII single payments, payments for special needs, contributions to health insurance and sanctions (Euro per month).
| Single payments housing costs | Payments for special needs | Contributions to health insurance | Sanctions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 5 | 18 | 177 | 8 |
| Std. deviation | 90 | 43 | 90 | 65 |
| 0.1 quantile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.5 quantile | 0 | 0 | 117 | 0 |
| 0.9 quantile | 0 | 60 | 250 | 0 |
| 0.99 quantile | 0 | 163 | 470 | 240 |
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Source: SIG version 0720, own calculations.
Recorded and simulated UBII entitlements by subgroup (mean values (standard deviation) in Euro per month, simulated mean value (standard deviation) relative to recorded mean value (standard deviation) in percent).
| Recorded UBII-entitlement | GETTSIM | NoRentLimit | HAStricter1 | HAStricter2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Females | 912 | 907 | 99% | 917 | 101% | 890 | 98% | 883 | 97% |
| (512) | (431) | (84%) | (440) | (86%) | (442) | (86%) | (446 | (87%) | |
| Males | 871 | 841 | 97% | 850 | 98% | 841 | 97% | 836 | 96% |
| (487) | (400) | (82%) | (412) | (85%) | (410) | (84%) | (412) | (85%) | |
| Singles | 655 | 648 | 99% | 657 | 100% | 654 | 100% | 650 | 99% |
| (231) | (189) | (82%) | (199) | (86%) | (202) | (87%) | (206) | (89%) | |
| Single Parents | 885 | 905 | 102% | 913 | 103% | 851 | 96% | 844 | 95% |
| (399) | (292) | (73%) | (301) | (75%) | (337) | (84%) | (343) | (86%) | |
| Couple w/o children | 880 | 873 | 99% | 879 | 100% | 875 | 99% | 873 | 99% |
| (389) | (354) | (91%) | (358) | (92%) | (361) | (93%) | (363) | (93%) | |
| Couple w/ children | 1,262 | 1,258 | 100% | 1,268 | 100% | 1,170 | 93% | 1,158 | 92% |
| (617) | (420) | (68%) | (439) | (71%) | (472) | (77%) | (480) | (78%) | |
| 25-<35 years old | 905 | 843 | 93% | 852 | 94% | 827 | 91% | 821 | 91% |
| (510) | (374) | (73%) | (386) | (76%) | (386) | (76%) | (390) | (76%) | |
| 35-<45 years old | 999 | 995 | 100% | 1004 | 101% | 973 | 97% | 966 | 97% |
| (572) | (471 | (82%) | (481) | (84%) | (481) | (84%) | (485) | (85%) | |
| 45-<55 years old | 869 | 880 | 101% | 891 | 102% | 881 | 101% | 876 | 101% |
| (475) | (436) | (92%) | (446) | (94%) | (447) | (94%) | (449) | (95%) | |
| >54 years old | 755 | 759 | 100% | 768 | 102% | 761 | 101% | 756 | 100% |
| (357) | (330) | (92%) | (338) | (95%) | (341) | (96%) | (344) | (96%) | |
| With income from self-employment | 830 | 896 | 108% | 905 | 109% | 879 | 106% | 873 | 105% |
| (430) | (420) | (98%) | (423) | (98%) | (420) | (98%) | (424) | (98%) | |
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Note: Grey cells represent the deviation from the group mean of the registered UBII claims, with increasing deviations for darker colours.
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Source: SIG version 0720, GETTSIM v0.7.0, own calculations.
Regression results.
| Explanatory variables | Dependent variable: Deviation of monthly recorded UBII-entitlement (in euros) from simulated entitlement according to simulation variant... | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NoRentLimit | HAStricter2 | ||||||
| Coefficient | Stat. Sig. | N | Coefficient | Stat. Sig. | N | ||
| Age (years) | -10.45 | *** | 1169 | -13.44 | *** | 1269 | |
| Age_squared (years) | 0.11 | *** | 1169 | 0.14 | *** | 1269 | |
| Female (ref.: male) | -1.08 | *** | 548 | -3.08 | *** | 607 | |
| Marital status (ref.: single) | |||||||
| Married, living separately | 7.8 | *** | 55 | 12.98 | *** | 60 | |
| Married, living together | -12.04 | *** | 354 | -12.65 | *** | 403 | |
| Divorced | 11.63 | *** | 120 | 16.15 | *** | 128 | |
| Widowed | -6.91 | *** | 13 | -5.44 | *** | 15 | |
| Unknown | -38.65 | * | 0 | -61.85 | * | 0 | |
| Employment status (ref.: unemployed) | |||||||
| Regular employed | -16.23 | *** | 134 | -29.71 | *** | 168 | |
| Vocational training | -15.65 | *** | 9 | -31.49 | *** | 11 | |
| Marginal employment | -17.55 | *** | 135 | -28.17 | *** | 141 | |
| Else | 57.94 | *** | 5 | 51.22 | *** | 5 | |
| Country/region of nationality (ref.: Germany) | |||||||
| EU | -10.54 | *** | 84 | -7.36 | *** | 95 | |
| Turkey | -14.04 | *** | 58 | -9.56 | *** | 65 | |
| Balkan countries | 1.33 | 23 | 5.78 | *** | 26 | ||
| Eastern Europe | 4.35 | *** | 16 | 6.75 | *** | 17 | |
| Africa | 26.71 | *** | 26 | 38.21 | *** | 29 | |
| America | -5.81 | ** | 4 | 9.89 | ** | 4 | |
| Asia | 32.29 | *** | 151 | 61.24 | *** | 168 | |
| Else/Unknown | 12.36 | *** | 4 | 98.16 | *** | 5 | |
| Status when entering Germany (ref.: No status, no information, missing) | |||||||
| (ethnic German) Resettler (Spätaussiedler) | -9.52 | *** | 3 | -14.36 | *** | 3 | |
| Person entitled to asylum | 3.63 | 4 | 14.07 | *** | 4 | ||
| Asylum seeker | 26.43 | *** | 4 | 26.11 | *** | 4 | |
| Quota system refugee (Kontigentflüchtling) | -7.05 | ** | 2 | -16.52 | *** | 2 | |
| Residence status (ref.: German, EU-resident, missing) | |||||||
| Permit of residence | 6.13 | *** | 176 | 11.72 | *** | 198 | |
| Temporary permission to stay | 59.14 | *** | 6 | 115.76 | *** | 7 | |
| Settlement permit | -19.42 | *** | 82 | -29.78 | *** | 91 | |
| Visa | 11.63 | *** | 3 | 53.89 | *** | 3 | |
| Other permission | -11.37 | *** | 7 | -15.17 | *** | 8 | |
| Asylum application not yet submitted | 67.87 | *** | 2 | 78.78 | *** | 2 | |
| Living space (square meters) | -0.23 | *** | 1169 | -0.33 | *** | 1269 | |
| Number of people living in the household | 25.71 | *** | 1169 | 39.71 | *** | 1269 | |
| Family type (ref.: Single) | |||||||
| Single parent | -5.51 | *** | 153 | -8.61 | *** | 177 | |
| Couple w/o children | 2.06 | *** | 133 | -4.99 | *** | 136 | |
| Couple w/ children | 59.95 | *** | 240 | 49.16 | *** | 293 | |
| Additional needs due to disability | 121.96 | *** | 3 | 116.96 | *** | 3 | |
| Severe disability (ref.: No) | |||||||
| Yes | 3 | *** | 53 | 2.86 | *** | 56 | |
| No information/missing | 29.81 | *** | 11 | 42.43 | *** | 12 | |
| Eastern Germany (ref.: Western Germany) | 3.76 | *** | 328 | 9.36 | *** | 355 | |
| Year 2018 (ref.: 2017) | -2.52 | *** | 570 | -1.22 | *** | 619 | |
| Intercept | 215.14 | *** | 278.05 | *** | |||
| N (in thousands) | 1,169 | 1,269 | |||||
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.13 | 0.11 | |||||
| Outcome (mean, euros) | 31 | 54 | |||||
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Notes: Asterisks */**/*** indicate statistical significance at the 10/5/1 per cent level, based on heteroscedasticity robust standard errors.
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Source: SIG version 0720, GETTSIM v0.7.0, own calculations.
Composition of the simulation sample and the excluded values where no simulation was possible (last sample selection step).
| Simulation Sample | No valid simulation possible | Difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| years (mean) | absolute | p-value* | ||
| Age | 42.6 | 43.8 | -1.14 | 0.00 |
| shares | ||||
| Female | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Single | 0.47 | 0.01 | 0.47 | 0.00 |
| Single Parent | 0.15 | 0.42 | -0.27 | 0.00 |
| Couple w/o children | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Couple w/ children | 0.27 | 0.52 | -0.24 | 0.00 |
| Eastern Germany | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| No school leaving certificate | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| No German citizenship | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Observations | 1,427,470 | 224,204 | ||
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Source: SIG version 0720, own calculations.
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*
p-value of a t test on the equality of means.
Data and code availability
The analyses are based on a 2% subsample of the Sample of Integrated Welfare Benefit Biographies (SIG), version 0720. The data are held by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Address: Regensburger Str. 100, D-90478 Nuremberg. Website: https://iab.de/en/. Social security and survey data held at IAB are processed and stored at IAB in accordance with the German Social Code (Book III). The data contain sensitive information on individuals and firms and are therefore subject to the strict data privacy regulation of the German Social Code (Book I, Section 35, Paragraph 1). External researchers may be granted access to the data for replication purposes on the premises of IAB in Nuremberg, subject to the provisions of Section 282 (7) of the German Social Code - Book III (§282 Absatz 7 Sozialgesetzbuch – Drittes Buch) and subject to availability of the required infrastructure at the research data center of IAB. Charges may apply. Real identifiers (e.g., address information, names) cannot be provided in this case. If access cannot be granted, a Ombudsperson will initiate a case-by-case review. In cases where real identifiers are necessary for replication purposes, external researchers can apply for data access subject to the provisions of Section 75 of the German Social Code - Book X (§75 Sozialgesetzbuch – Zehntes Buch). The corresponding author will help researchers interested in replicating the results to fill in the necessary forms. Data access is conditional on authorization by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. Charges may apply. Further information on data access for replication purposes is provided on the website of IAB, see https://iab.de/en/facts-and-figures-2/data-access-for-replication-purposes/. In case of doubts about the results of the research, researchers can contact the Ombudsperson for Good Scientific Practice at IAB (ombudsperson@iab.de). The original data, a replication package, and additional materials are archived at IAB.