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NCDMod: A microsimulation model projecting chronic disease and risk factors for Australian adults

  1. Sharyn Lymer  Is a corresponding author
  2. Deborah Schofield  Is a corresponding author
  3. Crystal M Y Lee  Is a corresponding author
  4. Stephen Colagiuri  Is a corresponding author
  1. University of Sydney, Australia
Research article
Volume 9(3) Winter 2016
Cite this article as: S. Lymer, D. Schofield, C. M Y Lee, S. Colagiuri; 2016; NCDMod: A microsimulation model projecting chronic disease and risk factors for Australian adults; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9(3); 103-139. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00145
2 figures and 7 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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NCDMod – The model’s schematic.

Figure 2
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NCDMod projected total Australian health expenditure (in $AU millions 2010), by age group, 2011–2025.

Tables

Table 1

Summary of NCDMod key variables.

Model Module Variable
NCDMod Basefile
Demography Age
Sex
Ethnicity
Family type
Socio-economic status
Chronic Illness Diabetes
Cardiovascular disease
Peripheral vascular disease
Arthritis
Cancer
Asthma
Renal failure
Depression
Dementia
Risk Factors BMI category
Reported high cholesterol
Reported high blood pressure
Reported high blood sugar
Smoking status
Alcohol consumption
Physical activity level
Population Projection
Demographics Age
Sex
Health Risk Factor and Disease Transition Modelling
Risk Factors BMI
Total cholesterol
Systolic blood pressure
Smoking status
Chronic Illness Diabetes incidence
Heart disease events
Stroke events
Mortality CVD deaths
Outcomes
Health Outcomes YLL (Years of life lost)
DALY
Expenditure Intervention costs
Health System costs
Scenario Comparator ICER (Incremental cost effectiveness ratio)
Table 2

NCDMod – Estimated Australian Population Baseline Demographic and Disease Characteristics, 20 years and over, 2010.

2010 Baseline Characteristics Gender
Obese
Male (%) Female (%) Total (%)
BMI < 30 kg/m2 72.0 73.6 72.8
BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 28.0 26.4 27.2
Known T2DM
Known T2DM 5.7 6.7 6.3
Not 94.3 93.3 93.7
Ever had a heart attack
Yes 3.3 1.4 2.3
No 96.7 98.6 97.7
Ever had a stroke
Yes 1.6 1.4 1.5
No 98.4 98.6 98.5
Overall 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total Population (in thousands) 8,194 8,764 16,958

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016.

  2. Notes: BMI = Body mass index; T2DM = Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Table 3

NCDMod – Estimated Australian Population Baseline Distributional Characteristics, 20 years and over, 2010.

Baseline Distribution Gender
Male Female Total Population
Age 2010 (in years)
Mean 46.5 48.7 47.6
Median 45.0 47.0 46.0
Standard Deviation 77.29 82.10 79.97
BMI2010 (kg/m2)
Mean 27.9 26.9 26.4
Median 27.1 25.4 26.4
Standard Deviation 25.91 29.02 27.65
Systolic Blood Pressure 2010 (mmHg)
Mean 130.0 127.4 128.7
Median 125.8 121.0 123.7
Standard Deviation 56.86 74.51 66.84
Total Cholesterol 2010 (mmol/L)
Mean 5.5 5.6 5.6
Median 5.4 5.5 5.4
Standard Deviation 2.66 2.53 2.60

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016.

  2. Notes: BMI = Body mass index.

Table 4

Comparison of NCDMod Baseline Characteristics with AHS 2011 values.

Population Characteristics NCDMod AHS % Difference
% 65 years and over 19.4 17.8 9.0
% male 48.3 49.4 -2.2
% type 2 diabetes (self-reported) 6.3 5.8 8.6
% obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) 27.2 28.8 -5.6
Population Size 16,957,458 16,393,424 3.4

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016.

  2. Notes: BMI = Body mass index; AHS = Australian Health Survey 2011.

Table 5

NCDMod Estimated mean Values of Health Indicators 2010–2025.

Outcome 2010 2015 2020 2025
BMI (kg/m2)
Total 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.4
Female 26.9 27.7 28.4 29.2
Male 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.7
SBP (mmHg)
Total 128.7 130.3 130.9 131.9
Female 127.4 129.0 129.9 131.2
Male 130.0 131.6 132.0 132.7
Total Cholesetrol (mmol/L)
Total 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4
Female 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
Male 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016.

  2. Notes: BMI = Body mass index; SBP = systolic blood pressure.

Table 6

NCDMod Projected Health Events and Rates, 2011–2025.

Variable 2011–2015 2016–2020 2021–2025
New Known Type 2 Diabetes 261,496 288,503 325,301
CVD Events (excl. CVD deaths) 461,566 600,715 697,050
Years Lived in Disability 1,380,228 1,826,728 2,085,673
CVD Deaths 258,948 378,091 445,225
Years of Life Lost 2,527,629 3,276,962 3,669,757
New Known Type 2 Diabetes Rate (per 100,000 population) 287.6 285.0 296.3
CVD Events (excl. CVD deaths) Rate (per 100,000 population) 507.6 593.4 635.0
CVD Deaths Rate (per 100,000 population) 284.8 373.5 405.6

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016.

  2. Notes: CVD = cardiovascular disease.

Table 7

NCDMod 2015 Outputs Compared to ABS National Health Survey 2014/15.

Population Characterstics NCDMod 2015 NHS 2014/15 Absolute % point difference %Difference
% Ever Smoke 20.9 17.4 3.5 20.1
% Obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) 26.1 27.9 1.8 -6.5
% High Blood Pressure 18.4 21.5 3.1 -14.4
% High Total Cholesterol 34.3 32.8 1.5 4.6
% T2DM 5.5 5.1 0.4 7.8
% CVD prevalence 3.2 5.2 2.0 -38.5

  1. Source: NCDMod version June 2016 and ABS NHS 2014/15 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2015b).

  2. Notes: Adults aged 18 years and over, aligning with ABS definitions used in reporting. T2DM = Type 2 diabetes mellitus. CVD = Cardiovascular disease.

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