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Using statistics Canada LifePaths microsimulation model to project the disability status of Canadian elderly

  1. Jacques Légaré  Is a corresponding author
  2. Yann Décarie  Is a corresponding author
  1. Université de Montréal, Canada
  2. Programme de démographie, Institut national de la recherche scientifique, INRS – Urbanisation Culture Société, Canada
Research note
Volume 4(3) Winter 2011
Cite this article as: J. Légaré, Y. Décarie; 2011; Using statistics Canada LifePaths microsimulation model to project the disability status of Canadian elderly; International Journal of Microsimulation; 4(3); 48-56. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00060
3 figures and 5 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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The projection model.
Figure 2
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Trends in total population (all health status) and people in poor health, aged 75+, Canada and FELICIE countries.
Figure 3
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Trends in total population (all health status) and people in poor health, aged 75+, Canada and FELICIE countries.

Tables

Table 1
Trends in Canadian life expectancy and disability free life expectancy at birth with the base scenario.
Year Life expectancy (LE) Disability free life expectancy (DFLE) Life expectancy with disability (LEWD)
2001 78.0 63.8 14.2
2011 79.7 64.6 15.1
2021 81.2 65.2 15.9
2031 82.4 65.7 16.7

  1. Source: Results from LifePaths model.

Table 2
Trends in Canadian life expectancy and disability free life expectancy at age 45 with the base scenario.
Year Life expectancy (LE) Disability free life expectancy (DFLE) Life expectancy with disability (LEWD)
2001 34.8 23.5 11.3
2011 36.1 24.0 12.1
2021 37.3 24.4 12.9
2031 38.3 24.7 13.7

  1. Source: Results from LifePaths model.

Table 3
Canadian people aged 75+ in poor health*, according to two scenarios, 2001 to 2031.
Year MEN WOMEN
Base scenario Healthy scenario Base scenario Healthy scenario
n2001 196 019 192 900 307 787 302 924
Standardized to 100 in 2001 2001 100 100 100 100
2011 149 122 134 110
2021 213 170 180 145
2031 333 271 270 226

  1. Source: Results from LifePaths Model.

  2. *

    People in poor health are those moderately or severely disabled.

Table 4
Canadian people aged 75+ in poor health* without surviving children, according to two scenarios, 2001 to 2031.
Year MEN WOMEN
Base scenario Healthy scenario Base scenario Healthy scenario
n2001 49 606 48 768 59 125 58 421
Standardized to 100 in 2001 2001 100 100 100 100
2011 128 106 108 89
2021 163 131 127 103
2031 277 223 224 182

  1. Source: Results from LifePaths Model.

  2. *

    People in poor health are those moderately or severely disabled.

Table 5
Canadian people aged 75+ in poor health* not married* and without surviving children, according to two scenarios, 2001 to 2031.
Year MEN WOMEN
Base scenario Healthy scenario Base scenario Healthy scenario
n2001 29 590 29 063 49 744 49 131
Standardized to 100 in 2001 2001 100 100 100 100
2011 137 113 106 87
2021 178 142 120 96
2031 323 255 204 161

  1. Source: Results from LifePaths model.

  2. *

    People in poor health are those moderately or severely disabled.

  3. **

    Married people include people in Common Law Union.

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