1. Demography
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Simulating migration in the Pensim2 dynamic microsimulation model

  1. Cathal O’Donoghue  Is a corresponding author
  2. Howard Redway
  3. John Lennon
  1. Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre, Athenry, Co. Galway, Ireland
  2. Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), United Kingdom
  3. Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre Athenry, United Kingdom
Research article
Volume 3(2) Autumn 2010
Cite this article as: C. O’Donoghue, H. Redway, J. Lennon; 2010; Simulating migration in the Pensim2 dynamic microsimulation model; International Journal of Microsimulation; 3(2); 65-79. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00039
3 figures and 5 tables

Figures

Figure 1
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Migration Model Outline.
(a) with 2 supplements
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k – based upon lagged transitions (1991–2000)
(b)
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k – based upon average transitions (1991–2000)
(c)
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k – based upon first transition in 1991 (1991–2000)
Figure 3
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External Control Totals for Emigration and Immigration

Tables

Table 1
Migration Trends in the UK 1991–2006 (000’s).
British EU Immigrants Commonwealth Other Total British EU Emigrants Commonwealth Other Total
1991 110 53 85 82 330 154 53 35 43 285
1992 93 44 65 67 269 155 38 31 57 281
1993 86 44 70 65 265 149 40 34 43 266
1994 109 50 80 76 315 125 42 31 40 238
1995 84 61 85 82 312 135 38 29 34 236
1996 94 72 78 74 318 156 44 32 32 264
1997 90 71 90 76 327 149 53 40 37 279
1998 104 82 105 101 392 126 49 33 44 252
1999 115 66 123 150 454 139 59 41 52 291
2000 99 63 147 169 478 161 57 47 55 320
2001 110 57 149 164 480 158 49 51 49 307
2002 97 59 155 201 512 185 52 58 64 359
2003 99 64 167 177 507 191 50 59 62 362
2004 88 256 215 155 714 195 83 53 52 383
2005 96 295 180 137 708 185 108 60 59 412
2006 81 330 201 142 754 207 132 67 61 467

  1. Source: ONS (2007) international migration: Migrants entering or leaving the United Kingdom and England and Wales, 2005.

Table 2
Components of migration modules used in dynamic microsimulation models internationally
Data source Migration flows Emigration explanatory variables Immigrant characteristics Re-entry of emigrants
APPSIM (Australia)1 2001 census, LSIA, overseas departure data Immigration and Emigration Age, sex, marital status, Australian or overseas-born No
CORSIM (USA) Immigration statistics Net Immigration Age, marital status, race, sex of HOH Age, marital status, race, sex
DESTINIE (France) 1998 Financial Assets Survey, 1999 census Net migration only n/a Population projections, birth cohort distributions No
DYNACAN (Canada) Immigration and Emigration HH process Number of Age, Number of gender and region Age, gender, Clones existing family characteristics except CPP contributions
DYNAMOD (Australia) 1986 census, LSIA, emigration records Immigration (by visa status) and emigration flows, net long term migration Age, sex, marital status, Australian or overseas-born LSIA, cloned from census data No
LIAM (Ireland) 1986–2006 Census, 1994–1997 Labour Force Survey Immigration and Emigration Flows Age, Region Quarterly National Household Survey divided into national and nonnational samples, Census No
LifePaths (Canada) 1921–1998 censuses, birth and immigration records Immigration and emigration flows; international and interprovincial movement Age, sex, province of residence, year, immigrant status, year of immigration Immigration data Yes
MOSART (Norway) 1993 National Insurance data Net migration only n/a General Norwegian population characteristics No
NEDYMAS (Netherlan ds) Immigration and emigration flows Age, Year of birth, Family type, sex, marital status Age, Year of birth, Family type, sex, marital status, year of previous emigration
Sverige (Sweden) Immigration data from 1989–90 Immigration and emigration flows Age, sex, education level, previous immigration, country of origin, labour force participation, income Immigration pool of 60 000 individuals No
SESIM (Sweden) Linda Immigration and emigration flows Swedish or foreign born, number of children, adults in household, highest education and oldest age in household, time since immigration Linda Yes

  1. Source: Pennec and Keegan (2007) and O’Donoghue (2001).

  2. Note 1: APPSIM is based upon the proposed in Pennec and Keegan.

Table 3
Probit Model of Emigration
Variable Coefficient p-value
Male 0.085838
Age 20–29 1.147498 0
Age 30–39 1.040151
Age 40–49 0.876858
Age 50–59 0.812458
Age 60–65 1.432797
Immigrant × Age 20–29 0.908987 0
Immigrant × Age 30–39 0.656066
Immigrant × Age 40–49 0.545079
Immigrant × Age 50–59 0.574327
Immigrant × Age 60–65 0.732853
Immigrant −0.0267 0
Constant −3.91427 0
Sample Size 1305652
Pseudo R2 0.072
Proportion Emigrate 0.0046

  1. Note: Year dummy variables are also included in the model

  2. Data source: LLMDB (1975–2006), working age population

Table 4
Summmary Statistics Emigration
Variable Males Females
Age 39.4 37.7
Immigrant 0.104 0.101

  1. Note: Year and Cohort dummy variables are also included in the model Data source: LLMDB 1975–2006, working age population

Table 5
Processes used to calculated for state pension.
Name Description
sp01 SetVarStatePenPe Set Variables to PE for state pension calculation
sp02_SetVarStatePenPa Set Variables to PA for state pension calculation
sp03_WaBspAccrual1 Calculate the accrual of BSP/HRP rights
sp04_WaGrossApAccrual Gross AP accrual
sp07_WaAPValue Net AP accrual
sp08_ClaimStatePen Whether individual will claim state pensions
sp09_AmountStatePen Amount/Value of state pensions claimed

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