Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina: Policy Insights from a Non-parametric CGE Microsimulation Analysis
- Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Argentina
- World Bank Group, USA
- Inter-American Development Bank, USA
Cite this article
as: M. Cicowiez, C. Díaz-Bonilla, E. Díaz-Bonilla; 2010; Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina: Policy Insights from a Non-parametric CGE Microsimulation Analysis; International Journal of Microsimulation; 3(1); 118-122.
doi: 10.34196/ijm.00031
Tables
Table 1
Model simulations.
| Simulation | Scenario | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GLOB | Removing all agricultural subsidies and all import and export taxes on goods trade in rest-of-the-world and Argentina |
| 2 | GLOBag | Same as GLOB except just for agricultural reform (i.e., domestic, import and export taxes and subsidies removed only on agricultural products) |
| 3 | WTO | Same as GLOB except not removing export taxes |
| 4 | WTOag | Same as WTO except just agricultural reform |
| 5 | ROW | Same as GLOB except just in rest of the world, and because it does not include Argentina, export taxes in this country are operational in this simulation |
| 6 | ROWag | Same as ROW except just agricultural reform |
| 7 | ARG | Same as GLOB except just in Argentina |
| 8 | ARGag | Same as ARG except just agricultural reform |
| 9 | ARG-ex | Same as ARG except only removing export taxes in all categories of goods and services, and again only in Argentina |
| 10 | ARGag-ex | Same as Sim 9 except just agricultural reform |
Table 2
Aggregate simulation results
| BASE | GLOB | GLOBag | WTO | WTOag | ROW | ROWag | ARG | ARGag | ARG-ex | ARGagex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP factor cost (bn LCU)a | 4,395 | −0.2 | −0.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −1.7 | −0.9 |
| Household consumption (bn LCU)a | 3,263 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −1.7 | −0.8 |
| Poverty line a | −- | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| Real exchange rate a | 1 | −4.6 | −6.3 | 0.5 | −2.9 | −2.0 | −2.9 | −2.7 | −3.5 | −5.3 | −3.5 |
| Terms of trade a | −- | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −0.6 |
| Unemployment rate (%) b | 12.3 | −0.4 | 0.8 | −2.6 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Extreme poverty rate (%) b | 12.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | −0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Moderate poverty rate (%) b | 34.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Gini household per capita income | 0.499 | 0.499 | 0.500 | 0.495 | 0.498 | 0.498 | 0.498 | 0.499 | 0.500 | 0.502 | 0.500 |
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Source: Authors′ estimates
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a
Percentage change from base;
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b
Percentage points difference from base
Table 3
Sectoral simulation results (percent change from base)
| BASE (bn LCU) | GLOB | GLOBag | WTO | WTOag | ROW | ROWag | ARG | ARGag | ARG-ex | ARGagex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, agriculture | 434 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 10.4 |
| GDP, non-agriculture | 3,961 | −2.0 | −2.7 | 0.6 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −1.6 | −2.1 | −2.8 | −2.1 |
| Exports, agriculture | 470 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 34.4 | 34.6 | 30.4 | 34.6 |
| Imports, agriculture | 15 | 113.5 | 104.2 | 0.2 | −3.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | 115.5 | 116.5 | 113.0 | 116.5 |
| Exports, non-agriculture | 894 | 0.6 | −17.1 | 4.5 | −7.1 | −6.7 | −7.1 | 7.4 | −10.6 | −4.0 | −10.6 |
| Imports non-agriculture | 1,025 | 19.4 | 6.3 | 12.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 17.1 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 3.9 |
| Food consumption (households) | 641 | −0.7 | −1.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | −1.3 | −1.6 | −2.3 | −1.6 |
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Source: Authors′ estimates
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